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The Ord Oracle September 12, 2022

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long 8/29/22 4030.61; sold 3990.03 on 9/2/22= loss 1%.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.

The low last week did not record panic in the TRIN to the degree we like to see for a durable bottom. However, the TICK close did have panic readings at the last low. To setup a bullish signal, both the TICK and TRIN need to record panic readings. This week is option expiration week, which has a bullish bias. So far, we don’t have a setup for a bullish option expiration week. The bottom window is the 3-day average of the TRIN, and readings below .60 (current reading is .53) have stalled the rally short-term. We don’t expect the rally to continue much longer, as not enough panic was recorded in the TICK and TRIN combination to expect a sustainable rally. Next week is the weakest week of the year, according to seasonality. If the market does pull back next week, an intermediate-term setup is possible for a rally into year-end.

Its usually not a good sign for the market if the VIX is up when the SPY is also up, and that happened today. Usually, the SPX trades opposite the VIX; when both are up, then there is a divergence, and divergences occur near a reversal in the market. The third window up from the bottom is the VVIX/VIX ratio, which helps to define the trend for the SPX, and today it turned down. There are divergences present.

Tim Ord,

Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release “The Secret Science of Price and Volume” by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.

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