Emily Ekins
A newly released national survey from the Cato Institute of 2,000 Americans conducted by YouGov finds that two-thirds (66%) of Americans say global trade is good for the US economy, and 58% say it has helped raise their standard of living. This may help explain why 63% of the public favors the United States increasing trade with other nations.
Three-fourths (75%) are concerned about tariffs raising the prices of products they buy at the store. Indeed, two-thirds (66%) of Americans would oppose paying even $10 more for a pair of blue jeans due to tariffs, even if they are intended to help US blue jean manufacturing.
Americans Perceive Costs and Benefits to Trade
Americans believe global trade has increased material abundance in their personal lives by increasing the variety of products they can buy at the store (64%) as well as boosting technological innovation (44%).
While Americans believe global trade has helped the country and themselves personally, many perceive problems too. Pluralities worry trade agreements will cut American wages (39%) and jobs (39%), and reduce the quality of jobs available (37%).
Voters worry particularly about trade’s impact on American manufacturing. Nearly 8 in 10 worry global trade has harmed some American manufacturing industries. But while 80% believe the country would be better off if more Americans worked in factories, only 25% would themselves like to work in a factory. Many also believe other countries are taking advantage of Americans — for instance, 59% think that China practices mostly unfair trade with the U.S.
Likely for these reasons, Americans are sympathetic to imposing tariffs on some imports. For instance, 62% would favor adding a tariff to imported blue jeans to boost production and employment in the domestic blue jean industry. However, when faced with the possibility that such a tariff makes a pair of blue jeans $10 more expensive, a strong majority (66%) of Americans oppose adding such a tariff. And even more would oppose blue jean tariffs if they caused the price of jeans to increase $25 per pair of jeans (81% oppose) or $50 more per pair (87% opposed.)
Americans Worry about Lobbying
Americans worry about lobbying’s impact on trade. Three-fourths (75%) are concerned that special interest groups are lobbying the government to put tariffs or other restrictions on trade. Indeed nearly half (48%) of Americans would become more opposed to a new tariff if a business or lobbying group pushed for it.
Most Americans Think Trade Deals Have Been Fair
Most Americans (53%) don’t believe the US has been taken advantage of by long-term trading partners. Nonetheless, nearly half (47%) believe Americans have been cheated. And few believe that China has been playing fairly.
Republicans are most likely to believe the US is being taken advantage of (66%) compared to only a third (32%) of Democrats and about half (48%) of independents. The South (51%) and Midwest (50%) are more likely than the West (42%) and Northeast (43%) to feel cheated.
Some trading partners are perceived more positively than others. For instance, a majority (66%) think Canada has traded fairly with the US, including 72% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans. Fewer think Japan has traded fairly, with only about half (49%) agreeing, including 55% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans. Even fewer (43%) think Mexico trades fairly with the US. However, there is a more significant partisan gap: While a slim majority (53%) of Democrats think Mexico has traded fairly, 38% of Republicans agree. Perceptions of fair trade plummet when China enters the equation. Only 15% of Americans think China trades fairly with the United States, including 20% of Democrats and 13% of Republicans.
Tit for Tat Trade Strategy
Americans are reluctant to unilaterally reduce trade barriers. In other words, Americans only want to reduce tariffs and other trade restrictions if the countries we trade with also reduce their restrictions. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of the public agree the government should reduce tariffs and other restrictions on products made in other countries “only if those other countries lower their trade restrictions on US products.” Less than a quarter (23%) believe that the US should reduce tariffs and trade restrictions “even if those other countries don’t lower their trade restrictions on US products.”
Parents Want Access to European-Made and ‑Regulated Baby Formula in the United States
In the aftermath of the national baby formula shortage, more than two-thirds (67%) of the public say that Americans should be allowed to buy baby formula manufactured in Europe and regulated by European government agencies. Currently, only formulas that the US FDA approves can be purchased in the US
Many Americans would also like to reduce barriers to purchasing European baby formula. A plurality (46%) favors removing tariffs on imported baby formula, 21% oppose and 34% don’t have an opinion. Some groups are even more supportive of removing tariffs on European baby formula, including Democrats (54%), parents of children under 18 (51%), and those with postgraduate degrees (54%).
Americans Want to Buy American
If all else were equal, a majority (75%) of Americans prefer to buy American-made products. Part of the reason is that most (55%) trust American-made products more than foreign-made products. However, if they were confident the quality would be the same, a slim majority of Americans (51%) would rather buy a less expensive product made abroad. Thus, a large share of Americans abandon their preferences for domestically produced goods as soon as a better price becomes available. For instance, 7 out of 10 Americans would not pay even $10 more for an American-made frying pan. Further, although the public says they prefer American-made products, 76% did not purposefully buy an American-made product in the past week.
A majority (58%) of Americans say they’d rather have businesses in the US “manufacture and make everything that we need within this country.” Less than half recognize or prioritize the gains from specialization and trade: 42% say that businesses in the US should “focus on what they make best and buy from companies in other countries what they make best.” Yet Americans are wary about paying more for the products if made domestically. For instance, 27% wouldn’t pay anything more to get an American-made frying pan if a cheaper import was available. Three-fourths (75%) would not be willing to pay more than $10 for an American-made frying pan if a less expensive import was available.
Most Americans do not consider economic concepts of “comparative advantage” or “gains from trade” when thinking about American trade policy. However, attaining more education may change minds and turn people against autarky. For instance, while 64% of Americans with high school diplomas wanted to manufacture everything we need in this country, in contrast, 55% of post-graduates think US companies should focus on what they make best and buy from companies in other countries what they make best.
Perceptions of the Trade Deficit Improve After Learning It’s Reinvested in the US
Most Americans (62%) have a negative perception of the US’s $1 trillion trade deficit, saying it’s a “bad thing.” A quarter (25%) don’t think it matters much either way, and 13% think it’s a good thing. However, if respondents learned that the money from the trade deficit was reinvested into the US economy, then concern drops to 24% who think the trade deficit is a problem. Instead, 76% would not be concerned about the trade deficit because they thought it either was a good thing (46%) or didn’t matter (30%). Notably, opinions about the trade deficit don’t vary much with educational attainment.
Americans Put America First
Americans understandably want trade policy to primarily benefit Americans. However, there is disagreement about how to achieve this.
A majority of Americans (56%) would support putting tariffs on goods made in other countries and imported into the US if those countries put restrictions on American-made products. However, support for these retaliatory tariffs drops significantly if it increases prices of goods at the store (34% support), decreases innovation and growth of American businesses (27%), encourages businesses to lobby for subsidies or tariffs (38%), or decreases jobs at other American companies that rely on the tariffed imports (22%).
Ultimately a solid majority (61%) of Americans believe US businesses need to “learn how to become strong and compete globally without any government handouts or taxpayer subsidies” while 39% think American businesses need taxpayer subsidies “to help them compete with other countries’ businesses that don’t play fair.”
Partisanship Colors Attitudes on Tariffs
Partisanship deeply colors how Americans think about trade policy, especially tariffs. In a hypothetical, 61% of both Democrats and Republicans supported adding tariffs to TVs imported into the United States to “boost production of the American TV industry.” However, in an experiment in which half of the survey respondents were told that Donald Trump imposed these tariffs, 65% of Democrats said they would oppose the tariffs, while 70% of those who identified as Republicans said they would support them. On the other hand, if told that Joe Biden imposed these tariffs, then 57 percent of Democrats would support the tariffs—a 22-point swing relative to the scenario where Trump imposed them. Meanwhile, Republican support declined by 19 points (51%) relative to the scenario where Trump imposed the tariffs.
Americans Benefit from Globalization at the Grocery Store
A majority of Americans regularly benefit from trade globalization at the grocery store. Six in 10 (61%) say they bought fresh fruits and vegetables at the store every week or once a month in fall and winter months that were grown in other countries.
However, most don’t connect their ability to buy out-of-season fresh fruit with globalization.
Only a third (33%) thought globalization had “a lot” to do with it. A little less than half (45%) thought globalization had “some” to do with it, 18% thought it did not have much, and 4% thought it had nothing to do with it.
Americans Wildly Overestimate Imports from China
The survey asked Americans about what percent of all goods imported into the United States they believe come from China. The answer? About 15–16%. Yet, 81% of Americans overestimated the share of imports the US receives from China: 31% said 25 percent of imports, 28% said 50 percent of imports, 18% said 75 percent of imports, and 4% said 95% of imports came from China. Only 5% of Americans underestimated with 5% saying less than 5 percent was imported from China. Only 13% of Americans selected roughly the correct answer.
Voters are Concerned about Global Poverty
Three-fourths (75%) of Americans are concerned about global poverty, including 29% who are very concerned. Even more Americans (83%) believe that reducing global poverty would improve global stability and make the world and our country safer.
Most Americans (74%) also say “one of the best things the US government can do for the world’s poorest people is to let Americans freely trade with them.” This received bipartisan support with 77% of Democrats and 73% of Republicans agreeing.
Americans are split, however, on whether global capitalism and trade (50%) or more government investment and aid (50%) does the better job of lifting people out of poverty.
Trade is Not a Top Election Issue
Trade issues are unlikely to be a top priority for voters this year. Only 1% of surveyed Americans said that globalization and international trade was a top-three issue for them, the lowest for any issue asked about on the survey. Instead, far more cared about inflation (40%), health care (30%), jobs and the economy (28%), immigration (27%) and climate change (21%). This pattern holds for registered voters as well, with only 1% who identified trade as a top-three issue.
Voters certainly care about the impact US trade policies have on the prices of products they buy at the store, job availability, and the strength of American business. Nonetheless, trade issues specifically are not likely to guide their vote choice for president.
Full survey toplines found here.
Full survey crosstabs found here
Methodology
The Cato Institute 2024 Globalization and Trade Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov. YouGov collected responses online February 22–29 2024 from a national sample of 2,000 Americans 18 years of age and older. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.54 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. Questions about the trade deficit were collected in a separate survey April 24–30, 2024. The margin of error for this survey was +/-2.33 percentage points. Restrictions were put in place to ensure that only the people selected and contacted by YouGov are allowed to participate.
